According to Patrick, there are 10 tell-tale signs that a bubble is being blown:
» 1. The arrival of a “New Thing” that cannot be valued in the old way. Dumb-money companies start paying over the odds for New Thing acquisitions.
» 2. Smart people identify the start of a bubble; New Thing apostles make ever more glowing claims.
» 3. Startups with founders deemed to have “pedigree” (for example, former employees of New Thing companies) get funded at eye-watering valuations for next to no reason.
» 4. There is a flurry of new investment funds catering for startups.
» 5. Companies start getting funded “off the slide deck” (that is, purely on the basis of their PowerPoint presentations) without actually having a product.
» 6. MBAs leave banks to start up firms.
» 7. The “big flotation” happens.
» 8. Banks make a market in the New Thing, investing pension money.
» 9. Taxi drivers start giving you advice on what stock to buy.
» 10. A New Thing darling buys an old-world company for stupid money. The end is nigh.